At Least I'm Not an Angels Fan

No matter how bad your team is doing this year, feel good knowing they aren't as bad off as the Angels (unless they are the Angels in which case sorry). This year, at 14-24, the Angels have the third worst record in MLB. Only the Marlins and the Astros are worse and those teams were supposed to be terrible. Some experts were saying the Astros might challenge for the worst single season record ever. The Marlins self destructed yet again this offseason and lost their best player, Giancarlo Stanton, to injury. Unlike those two lowly teams, the Angels were supposed to be in a very different place as a team.

Over the last two years the Angels have led the pack in free agency, signing both of the biggest available players. In 2012, they inked Josh Hamilton for $123,000,000 over 5 years and in 2011, they signed one of the greatest players of all-time, Albert Pujols, for $250,000,000 over 10 years. That is right, both of those guys are going to be making $25 million a year. GM Jerry Dipoto essentially has a limitless budget and he has been using it. And yet still this team has gotten off to the third worst start in the whole of baseball and basically killing their playoff chances by May 1st.

Despite the popular myth that everything is Josh Hamilton's fault (wRC+ of 73!), the largest contributing reason for the Angels lack of success has been their pitching. The starters have a combined 5.04 ERA, which is fifth worst in the majors and the relievers have a combined 4.01, which is eight worst. Joe Blanton is the poster boy for under performance as he has gotten walloped to a tune of a 6.46 ERA this year. His 4.10 xFIP points to better results in the future, but based on how deep of a hole the team dug itself that probably doesnt matter. 

None of that struggling pitcher stuff should really matter though. The Angels starting lineup features, Albert Pujols (a sure fire first ballot hall of famer), Mike Trout (a 21 year old phenom and reigning RoY), Josh Hamilton (a former MVP) and Mark Trumbo (who has clubbed 29 and 32 HR that last two seasons). Combined those guys could/should hit 120 HR and have a wRC+ well over 120. Throw in above average starters like Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick and the lineup should be capable of just flat out hitting anyone regardless of pitching performance. Instead they have gotten off to a slow start exactly when their struggling pitcher needed them the most.

Basically nothing has gone right for the Angels. Their pitchers are struggling and their hitters are struggling. Additionally their usual aggressive base running and motion style offense appears to be gone. They are 26th in the league in SB. I hate to say it but the Mike Scioscia magic seems to be gone and the rally monkey must have died of old age. At this point in the season there is no team in worse shape than the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

We Dont Have a Pick and I Dont Care

Tomorrow night the first round of the NFL draft will take place in New York city. Fans from across the country will tune in and watch as teams add players they hope can turn their fortunes around or strength a weakness. The sports media world will be focused intently on these 32 picks. Analysis of each and every pick will be offered from anyone and everyone with any sort of expertise. The Seahawks will be left out of all this hoopla and I really don't care that we are missing out.

As a quick reminder, during the off season the Seahawks traded away their 2013 first round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for WR/Athlete Percy Harvin. As such, they don't get a pick this year (unless they trade for one). Under normal circumstances this would be a big deal. Our team would be missing out on the chance at signing one of the 32 best college players in the country. This year is different. This year the Seahawks are already loaded with young talented players. They have very few holes to fill.

Going into the offseason the biggest needs were the defensive line and WR. The front office has already taken care of both of these needs. They traded for Percy Harvin, who is one of the most dangerous playmakers in the league. Next they signed Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who have combined for 33.5 sacks in the last two years.  The Seahawks biggest need is probably a OLB or a TE, but neither of these are usually considered first round positions.

Additionally, this year's incoming draft class is considered by many of the talk heads as one of the worst in years. There are very few projected premier, fortune changing, talents. Using that pick to acquire a player like Percy Harvin is probably a much better use of your valuable first round pick. There probably aren't any players that can make the kind of impact Harvin can. Missing out on a first round talent this year, especially considering our pick would have been so late, just doesn't have the same impact as missing out in years past.

GM John Schneider and Head Coach Pete Carroll have done an excellent job setting this team up for the present and the future. The team appears to have very few, if any, weaknesses, which means they have the luxury of being able to skip the first round tomorrow and still be set for a great run in 2013.

Next Time Just Give Them a Fruit Basket

Well that was sure nice of the Mariners, to let the Astros win their first ever series at Safeco Field as a member of the AL West. What generous and polite hosts our Mariners are. They showed the weak scared little Astros a great time. Unfortunately in the world of professional baseball giving away gifts like this doesnt gain you anything. Every series counts. The key to the playoffs is not winning every game but winning more series then you lose.  The Astros arent going to intentionally return the favor when the M's go to Houston. I would have much rather Jack Z just handed every Astors player a fruit basket and given them a professional and courteous handshake.

P.S. Stop sucking at baseball Mariners!

Please Mariners Dont Fail Me Again

I think the Mariner’s lack of success has finally gotten to me. Eleven years without a playoff appearance and nine years of being outscored by the opponents has left me entering the 2013 season with the lowest level of excitement I can remember. I am struggling to see how this year’s team has a chance to compete. 

I know there are better players this year and the fences have been moved in, but we have had signs of improvement in the past only to finish on the outside looking in again. Remember 2004 and 2010? Both years we expected to compete and both years we lost 99+ games. All the years a disappointment and terrible personnel moves has put me teetering on the edge of becoming a Mariners pessimist. All it will take is another disappointing last place finish and I will be over the cliff. And once I go there it will be an unbelievably difficult task to pull myself back into the world of optimism or even realism. 

So, as a preventative measure, I ask the 2013 Mariners to not fail us again. Don’t waste ten Felix Hernandez pitching gems by only scoring one run. Don’t wait until July to cut a struggling old veteran just because he might turn it around. Don’t trade away a promising young player for a reliever on the hopes he will help you make the playoffs.  And whatever you do don’t let the Astros surprise the league and finish ahead of us.

Getting to Know the New Neighbors

 

This year, for the first time since 1994, the American League West is going to be getting a new team. It will no longer be a four team race. The Houston Astros will be joining the Mariners, Athletics, Angels and Rangers to challenge for the coveted playoff spot. As Mariners fans and longtime members of the AL West we should celebrate the arrival of our new rival. Unless something goes total terribly disastrously wrong, for the first time in years the M’s won’t be the worst team in the division. We should also spend some time getting to know our new opponents. After all, we are going to see them 18 times this year.

So, first let’s state this simply, the Astros are terrible. They have lost 105+ games each of the last two seasons and haven’t had a winning record since 2008. During that time the team has consistently traded away all their players that show potential (Michael Bourne, Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez, Jed Lowrie, the list goes on and on). This has basically left them with a roster absent of major league talent.

So, what about the players? There must be some of them that are worth knowing. Well maybe one. Last year their lone all-star representative was 2B Jose Altuve, who had a wRC+ of 104 and played pretty mediocre to bad defense. That performance is very exciting, but like I said before, the Astros have basically traded away everyone worth knowing. However, as a fellow AL West member, we should still take a look at the roster.

In the starting rotation the most notable names are Lucas Harrell and Bud Norris. Harrell is the better of the two, with a lower ERA and xFIP, but Norris gets more of the press. This is because Norris does a good job striking people out, while Harrell doesn’t.  They also signed Phil Humber, the guy that threw a perfect game against the M’s last year and ended the season off a major league roster. So, who knows what they have in him. After those three they are definitely going to have other players starting games.

In the bullpen the situation is no better. Last year’s best reliever, Wilton Lopez, is now with the Colorado Rockies. Like I said before everyone leaves Houston. The best players left is Wesley Wright, who strikes people out at a good rate, minimizes walks and minimizes home runs. So, hopefully he will be a bright spot. In other hilarious news, Bill Bavasi draft bust Josh Fields, is on the roster.

The position players finish up this terrible roster the way it began, with a bunch of nothing. The aforementioned Jose Altuve should be solid enough and probably an All-Star again (because of the every team has to have one rule). After him the team does have Chris Carter and Carlos Pena (both former A’s, weird) who should provide Homers and strikeouts in abundance. Infielders Tyler Greene and Marwin Gonzalez, managed to compile 0.0 WAR last year in a combined 500+ PA, so that is something. Not just anybody can play at a perfectly replacement level for an entire season, and the Astros have two such palyers!

There you have it. The Houston Astros are the new team in the AL West. I would call them a competitor, but that might be too strong of a word. Unless something changes or some players pop in an unexpectedly good way they look to be awful yet again. Take comfort Mariners fans there is finally somebody worse off than us!

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, Astros.com

What is the deal with James Loney?

What is the deal with James Loney? Back in the mid 2000’s, along with Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier, he was one of the young players that was supposed to help turn the Dodgers into a perennial contender. Kemp and Ethier turned into the stars they were projected to, while Loney didn’t. Sure, he hasn’t been terrible, he has a career wRC+ of 103 and is considered a solid defender, but he has been a far cry from what was expected. He is especially frustrating if you consider he is a first baseman, a position that traditionally has good or great offensive players.

At 6’3” and 220lb, Loney definitely has the body of a good player. He is tall and appears to be in good shape. He has just never been able to transform that physicality into success at the major league level. He is a great example of a jeans salesman (watch Moneyball, you’ll get the reference). It just looks like he should be a good player.

There is definitely more to the perception that he should be good then just his athletic body. Loney’s minor league career seemed to indicate major league success. As a minor leaguer he had a triple slash of .296/.363/.430. His potential landed him on the Baseball America top 50 prospects list three of his five seasons (if you don’t count 2007 when he was no longer a prospect). In 2006, during a half season with the Las Vegas 51’s, Loney hit .380/.426/.546. That was enough to get him called up to the big leagues where he hit .284/.342/.559. The future certainly looked bright.

Looking at that major league career there are positive signs as well. During a strikeout crazy era Loney owns a career K% of 12.2%, which according to Fangraphs is great. Over the three season span of 2010-2012, Lonely was seventh in the league in line drive percentage (LD%). Normally a high LD% translates into on field success. Some of the other leaders are Joey Votto, Joe Mauer and Freddie Freeman. Additionally, he makes contact at an above average rate, 87.9% of the time he swings. The numbers tell us he avoids strikeouts, makes contact at a high rate and the type of contact he makes is good. All this should lead to success.

So, he looks like he should be good, he did well in the minors and his peripheral stats show signs of promise, why is he bad? Maybe James Loney is just unlucky. The thing is, in baseball, even luck can be measured. BABIP does exactly this. According to Fangraphs, an average BABIP is .290-.310. James Loney has a career BABIP of .305, right around average. I think this is enough to discredit that he is unlucky. That leaves us still lost as to why he isn’t good.

Not being able to figure it out with body type, minor or major league stats, the best guess I can offer is a lack of bat speed. Big toned muscles don’t generate power alone, basically, bat speed generates power. People generate bat speed in all different ways (quick wrists, huge pecs and arms, powerful hips, etc), but without it you just don’t hit for power. I am not a doctor, a physical trainer or a professional scout, so I couldn’t tell you exactly about his bat speed. However, I can tell you having low bat speed is the most likely reason why someone cant hit for power.

So, why isn’t James Loney good? Unfortunately, I can’t tell you for sure. All I can do is offer guesses, which is a pretty disappointing outcome for a blog post (especially sense you had to read so many words to get here). However, based on his ability to consistently land on major league rosters I am not the only who confused by his lack of success. The professional evaluators continue to see something in him. James Loney’s lack of success will continue to be a mystery.

Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference

A Few Tidbits from Around the Web

As a reminder that I still love my readers (hopefully plural) here are a bunch of links to interesting sports things around the web. Click away.

• They're back! The always fun Seattle Mariners TV commercials have been released for 2013.
• A great read about one of the best pitchers of the last ten years, Roy Halladay.
• John McGrath's take on Percy Harvin, the Seahawks newest WR.
• Alex, from Seattle Sportsnet, does a great job of outlining everything wrong with ROOT (except he forgot to highlight Dave Sims)