Baseball, you’ve changed. It’s Time for Me to Leave.

It isn’t easy to admit when you stop loving something. There is a sense of commitment to it even after the joy is gone. Falling out of love has been a long and slow process for me. It didn’t happen because a singular event ripped us apart. I am not hurt or angry. It happen because I changed and so did baseball, and we no longer match each other. It happened because the Mariners results didn’t change and the future doesn’t look bright. Baseball and the Seattle Mariners just aren’t for me anymore.

I remember when my disillusion with the Mariners started. It was 2013 when the Astros joined the AL West. The Astros were one of the worst teams in baseball for several years running. They lost over one hundred games in both 2011 and 2012. In 2013 they would finish 51-111. Yet against the Mariners they went 9-10. In their six matchups in April, when the season was still young and there was hope for the M’s, the Astros went 4-2. It was very disheartening seeing the Seattle Mariners get outplayed by the worst team in Major League Baseball. It really broke my passion for the Mariners. It showed me they really were a cursed/pathetic/hopeless organization.

Over the next five years the Mariners weren't even terrible; they never lost 90+ games. But they also weren’t good and they continued to no one’s surprise to miss the playoffs. The Mariners were stale. There were some fun times (Dae Ho Lee!) to be sure. However there was also a lot of the same old thing. The Mariners would start slow, start to climb back up the standings and then collapse right when it started to get interesting.

My cynicism for the Mariners didn’t end my enjoyment of baseball in immediately. That happened more gradually. There wasn’t a single event that made me lose interest.  Instead it was just a slow steady decline resulting in where I am now. Baseball is boring to me.

The games don’t hold my attention anymore. Nothing happens for long stretches of the game. Most of the time you are just watching someone in the batters box fail to put the ball in play. Batters strikeout about a quarter of plate appearances (league median is 22.3%)

Additionally, players and managers have realized the value of walks and try to maximize them which leads to taking more pitches and earning more walks (8.5% of plateappearances in 2018.) combine these two trends and it means players don’t put the ball in play around a third of the time.

Then there are the constant commercial breaks (inning changes, pitcher changes, in game trips to the mound.) It often feels like there is more time not watching baseball then actually seeing the sport. (I must see five Lee Johnson Mazda ads per game. ) I feel like I know the advertising jingles better than the players. The playoffs (not that Mariners fans would know) are even worse. The games can easily last four hours, and the networks broadcasting them try to cram as many ads as possible in. It ruins what could be an exciting playoff system. Instead of the broadcast amplifying the tension and drama of the game it does the opposite by cutting away and showing promos for some new sitcom.

With all of this downtime one of the main things to do, while you watch Kyle Seager take another strike two, is listen to the commentators talk about how great Kyle Seager is and how he is really going to come out of his slump soon, maybe right now. The Mariners broadcast can be unctuous. They pride themselves on being fans, but they fail to call out the bad play or decisions the team has continued to make for 15 years (I won’t hold 2002 or 2003 against them.) for a team that wasn’t so laughably inept it would be acceptable, but the Mariners are one of the most consistently bad teams in the major American sports leagues. They hold longest active streaks for missing the playoffs. If they played in another market with more media coverage nationally they would be a laughing stock, instead they are just irrelevant. The announcers need to be able to admit the reality the fans are watching.

I may sound bitter or mad, but I am not. I am just realistic about what the sport and my home team have become for me. I don’t think I am leaving on bad terms. I have filled my summer evening with other hobbies and I am sure we will still see each other from time to time. The Mariner’s home field is still beautiful and hard to resist on a nice summer evening. Sitting on the first base side of the stands and looking out over the left field bleachers as the sun sets is special. I also don’t expect other diehards to follow my lead or even agree with me. My experience of falling out with baseball is personal. Baseball holds a special place in the hearts and minds of many people. It is nearly synonymous with summer for some fans. It was this way for me once, but not anymore.

Baseball I don’t love you anymore.

Patriots Win a Super Bowl No One Will Remember

The Patriots just won Super Bowl LIII 13-3 over the Rams. It was probably the most boring Super Bowl in my life time. It was definitely the least memorable. I can't think of an NFL championship game in the last 20 years that had so little of note happen. This isn't just a complaint about the low score. Low scoring games can be interesting if there are exciting defense plays or turnovers. Super Bowl LIII had none of those. There were two meaningless interceptions, five total sacks, and no fumbles. The game was basically incomplete passes and 2 yard runs.

The most memorable part was probably Todd Gurley not getting the ball. For some unknown reason the Rams decided to use C.J. Anderson just as much as Gurley (9 touches to 10). Although neither player did well. Anderson had 34 total yards and Gurley had 34.

The game won't even be remember for its winner. Unlike say Super Bowl 50, where the Broncos won a defensive shown down 24-10, there was no feel good story for the champion. The Patriots have won six Super Bowls now. They have won three of the last five NFL championship games. Additionally the Patriots biggest star, Tom Brady, had a mediocre game. He went 21 for 35 for 262 yards and no touchdowns. Nothing special about his performance. This one will just melt into the collective memory of the Patriots being good.

Super Bowl LIII was probably the most boring rendition of the game in the last 20 years.

The AFC is Broken

The AFC’s competitive balance is embarrassing. For the eighth straight year the New England Patriots appeared in the AFC title game. For the third straight year the Patriots won that game and will appear in the Super Bowl. The AFC is broken.

This isn’t an NFL problem. The last three NFC teams to face the Patriots in the Super Bowl showed they can be beaten. The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Patriots. The Atlanta Falcons should have beat the Patriots. Instead they had an historic melt down. The Seattle Seahawks battled them to the last second only for an amazing defense play to bail out the Patriots. Eli Manning and the New York Giants beat the Patriots twice. Obviously the Patriots can be beaten.

Bill Belichick is an amazing coach probably the best ever. Tom Brady is a good quarterback. However, Belichick has been coaching in New England for 19 years. Teams should be able to figure him out eventually. He does make mistakes and he never actually plays on the field. Tom Brady is 40 years old and completely immobile. He isn’t an MVP quality player anymore. The Patriots have a distinct advantage with these two men in the organization, but they aren’t invincible. They can be beaten.

The problem is the AFC. It is broken. The other 15 teams are unable to compete effectively against the Patriots in the playoffs. Some clicks and teams fall apart. It makes the AFC boring because you know the outcome before the season starts. Hopefully something fixes this hex soon otherwise we will be watching the same old show for another 5 or whenever Brady finally retires.

Thoughts on the Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks’ season has been a fairly typical one for a Pete Carroll coached team. They started out of the gate slow, kept every game close,  built and identity and started really rolling in November and December. I haven’t had time to write an in depth thoughts on the team this year (life gets busy and blogging for fun gets pushed to the back burner.) So, instead of a bunch of longer more researched and crafted posts here is a list of my thoughts of the season thus far.

• Pete Carroll truly is a defensive master mind. His team fired their d coordinator, lost four Ring of Honor caliber players (Sherman, Chancellor, Bennett, and Avril) during the off-season, have had two expected key contributors miss the majority of the season from injury (Wright, and Thomas) and yet still is playing at a very high level. This is probably his best coaching job ever in Seattle. He should get serious consideration for Coach of the Year.
• Chris Carson is a Locomotive. When he runs he is full of power and always gets positive yards. The guy never goes down without a fight. He is tons of fun to watch and a great running back for the Seahawks brand of football. I do worry about his style of running leading to a short playing career, even by running back standards. Carson takes a lot of contact and often gets gang tackled. Both usually lead to injuries. But while he healthy and here in Seattle I love watching him play. 
• Tyler Lockett has become the big play guy. I questioned the teams decision to pay him this last offseason. He has delivered in 2018. He has 9 TD in 13 games. He makes acrobatic catches and  bails out Wilson at least once a game. The team was right to pay him.
• Russell Wilson is good but not great. He has struggled at critical points this year. He continues to hold the ball too long and doesn’t throw it away when he should. He needs to use his legs as an offensive weapon and run more. That said he throws a beautiful deep ball. At least once a game he puts one deep right where a receiver can snag it. He is calm and collected and doesn’t let mistakes phase him. He is probably the sixth or seventh best QB in the league. He has a new contract coming up soon and the team needs to pay him. They also need to realize his limitations and paying him accordingly. They should not handicap themselves with a massive contract that keeps them from getting the rest of the roster filled. He isn’t Tom Brady or Drew Brees. He can’t win a Super Bowl on his own.
• D.J. Fluker is the offensive MVP for Seattle. As soon as he came back in week three the team started running and running with authority. When you watch a run you can see his presence. He is a bull dozer out there. He just flattens defenders and makes way. He is probably the best lineman signing of Pete Carroll’s tenure. I wish he was younger and healthy so he could demolish D lines for the next ten years.
• The team’s starting cornerbacks are young and talented. The Legion of Boom May be gone but Tre Flowers and Shaquill Griffin could be starting something special. They are both fast and cover well. There have definitely been growing pains. Both players have been burned. Both have gotten tagged for critical penalties. Those are things that should get better as they both get experience. Next year those two guys could be amazing.

The AL West is Too Good

After 14 years of futility and mediocre to bad baseball the Mariner’s are finally having a good season. They are 61-41, 20 games over .500. The team is on pace for 97 wins and that should surely mean a post season appearance. Everything should be good in Seattle baseball, except for the freaking Oakland A’s.

The A’s have won 7 of their last 9 and in July they have gone 15 and 5. The team is on a crazy good run and has catapulted up the standings. They are only 1 game back of the M’s and are threatening to cruise right past them. It is like a repeat of 2002 all over again.

What the hell?! We already suffered through missing the playoffs with 90+ wins, twice (2002 nd 2003.) Can’t the M’s finally catch a break? The team has served their time. They have changed their approach and signed good young players. They have a great mix of veterans and club controlled players. They can hit and pitch well enough (9th in team wRC+ and 14th in team ERA) and they are scrappy. They have one of the best closers in baseball. This should be their year. They should be fighting for a division title. Not battling to hang onto the second wild card.

Instead they are stuck in second place behind the best team in the majors (the Astros are 1st in team ERA and 2nd in team wRC+) and barely in the second wild card spot because between them the Yankees and Red Soxes have essentially locked down the first wild card. This could be another year that the Mariners win 90+ and miss the playoffs because the AL West is too good yet again.

The Sounders’ Offense is Broken and Needs Help

The Sounder's offense is pathetic. They are just downright bad. The team has scored 10 goals in 13 games. They have been shut out eight times this year. They are third to last in the Western Conference standings (somehow San Jose and Colorado are doing worse.) Watching the team play it is obvious that they just don't have the skill required to create, let alone convert, scoring chances. The Sounders are in desperate need of offensive help. What the team really needs is a player like Chad Barret or Obafemi Martins. 

During his two years in Seattle Barrett scored 12 goals, while averaging about 36 minutes per game. Barrett's role on the team was to sub in late and bring an intense energy to the attack and he did exactly that. Whenever Barrett substituted into a game you knew that he was going to find the ball and make things difficult on the opposition. He was a player that truly sparked an offense with his arrival. 

The Sounders current roster doesn't have anyone like that. There most frequently go to is Lamar Neagle who doesn't bring confidence to any fan when he enters the game. He has managed one shot on goal in 109 minutes this year. Usually the Sounder's late subs disappear into the fray. You essential forget they are even out there. The Sounders need someone they can bring into a close game late that will harass the opposing defense and motivate the rest of the squad. They need someone that can elevate their game with their energetic presence. They need a player like Chad Barrett.

Probably the most creative and talented offensive player the Sounders have ever had was Obafemi Martins. The Nigerian player was able to execute brilliant inventive moves to beat defenders regularly. He scored at a highly efficient rate and powered the Sounders attack to amazing heights. His partnership with Clint Dempsey was magical. He was able to anticipate and read Dempsey like they had been playing together since grade school.

The Sounders could obviously use a player like Martins, every team in the league could, but his kind of talent is special and rare. More realistically what they need is a player with creativity and ball skills in the vein of Oba. They need someone that can dribble at a defender head on and beat them once and a while. They need someone that can instinctively know when to shoot from a crazy angle and when to flick it on for someone else to score. The current roster just has no one that can create . They have no one that can dribble past a defender. They rely entirely on crossing and earning free kicks. The Sounders offense needs someone like Obafemi Martins.

The Sounders’ current offense is broken. They lack the energy and talent to create scoring chances. The team needs different players to improve the attack. They need a player that can ignite an attack late and force a tired opposing defense into mistakes. They need a player with creativity and ball skills that can attack the center of the defense. They need a player like a and Barrett or Obafemi Martins, or even better both.

The Seahawk's Drafts have Regressed to a More Sustainable Level

Recently a lot of people have been criticizing the Seahawks last four drafts. They point to the failure of the team to draft any regular Pro-Bowlers or even regular starters. They hold 2010-2012 up as the standard for the team. Those years were amazing. They drafted 14 players that would significantly contribute (defined by my subjective opinion) to the team. The results set an impossible standard that we shouldn't judge them against.

The Seattle Times did a good job breaking down some of the reasons why the results of the Seahawk's drafts have gotten worse. Probably the most important reason was what The Times called regression to the mean. To summarize basically no teams are ever consistently good at drafting. They may have a few good drafts, but it is mostly luck. Teams just can't consistent determine which players will succeed and which will fail. The Seahawks got really lucky over 2010-2012. No team can consistently draft huge numbers of starters year after year. 

The Seahawk's recentdrafts (2016 excluded) aren't as terrible as people seem to say. They have picked players that contribute, just at closer to two a year instead of four or five. The team's current struggles aren't because of bad drafting as much as injuries and natural aging of their stars. The team has picked quality players, just not at the crazy rate of 2010-2012.

To highlight these impact players let's start in 2013 and work our way through all the drafts up to 2016. I am going to include 2017 because those players have only had one professional year and it is early to judge them, although I think it has a lot of promise with Naz Jones, Shaquill Griffin, Chris Carson, and Ethan Pocic.

First up is 2013, which will always be remember for the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl and not for who they drafted. This year the Seahawks picked eleven players, including four in the seventh round. The Seahawks did draft Christine Michael in the second round. The running back was shock to many when he was drafted and ended up a big disappointment during his tenure with the Seahawks. The two players that have had the biggest positive impact on the team are Jordan Hill and Luke Willson.

Jordan Hill was definitely never a star for the team, but he did play an important role. His promising rookie season was cut short because of injury. 2014 was a good season for the big defensive tackle. He recorded 5.5 sacks and played in 13 games for a team that would make it to the Super Bowl for the second year in a row. Hill played one more adequate year in Seattle before moving on to Jacksonville.

Over his five year career with the Seahawks Luke Willson players in 72 of the possible 80 games. Although he was never a big threat in the passing game he did often produce when called upon. The whole time he was in Seattle Willson was stuck behind Jimmy Graham on the depth chart. Although not his fault this definitely suppressed his stats. 

The next draft to review is 2014. This year the team drafted nine players. Three of these men have had noteworthy careers with Seattle, Paul Richardson, Justin Britt, and Cassius Marsh.

Richardson show a lot of potential at wide receiver, but he struggled to stay healthy. He has blazing fast speed, that should let him get separation downfield. It took him until last year, 2017, when he gained 703 yards and caught 6 touchdowns to put it all together. Richardson won't be in the Ring of Honor, but he wasn't a busted draft pick.

Since he was drafted Justin Britt has started 63 of a possible 64 games. He was frustrating to watch his first couple of seasons, but he has since turned a corner. Last year Britt was the best offensive lineman for the Seahawks. His play at center was the only position that was even adequate until the arrival of Duane Brown.

It might be a surprise to some people that I included Cassius Marsh as an impact player. His stats certainly don't paint him to be one. However in 2015 and 2016 Marsh was a regular in the defensive line rotation and provided quality play when he was on the field. He pressured the quarterback and took up blockers allowing other players to make tackles. Marsh was by no means a super star, but he was a solid contributor for the Seahawks for two seasons before being traded to the Patriots.

2015 landed the Seahawks two impact players out of the eight they drafted. Interestingly 2015 was the third year in a row the Seahawks didn't draft in the first round. It has led to a running joke in Seattle about the Seahawks brass preferring seventh rounders over first rounders. Anyways, the two players of note from 2015 were Frank Clark and Tyler Lockett.

Whether or not you like Frank Clark as a person he has been a net positive on the football field for the Seahawks. After getting used to the NFL in 2015, Clark has recorded 19 sacks over the last two seasons. There are games when he disappears, which is frustrating, but overall Clark gets pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Tyler Lockett had a truly exciting rookie campaign. He gained 664 yards receiving and caught 6 touchdowns. He started to develop a real chemistry with quarterback Russell Wilson. Lockett was even better in the return game. He returned a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown. To recognize his achievements he made the Pro-Bowl has a returner. Unfortunately Lockett hasn't been able to repeat the feats of his rookie year. His average punt return yards shrank in each consecutive season and he has never taken his receiving to the next level. Even so, Lockett is still a good and young player.

As I mentioned above 2016 was the one exception to my argument that the Seahawks drafts haven't been that bad. 2016 was essentially a complete miss for the team. They drafted 10 players, including Germain Ifedi, their first first round selection since 2012. Despite the large number of picks and the high rounds, the Seahawks just were unable to find quality players. Alex Collins appears he might be a good NFL running back, but the Seahawks cut him and now he plays for the Ravens. The one guy that I would count as a positive impact for team is Jarran Reed. He has played a very solid defensive tackle for the Seahawks in 30 of 32 possible games. He is definitely a contributing member of the rotation and is able to record tackles and assist on others at a satisfactory rate.

Between 2010 and 2012 the Seahawks set a standard for the quality of their drafts that is impossible for them to repeat. Even the most brilliant football minds of all time would struggle to replicate the amount of talent the Seahawks snagged over those three years. The team's subsequent drafts have looked bad by comparison, but in reality they are passable. That isn't to say there haven't been mistakes (see Christine Michael), but there have also been successes. The Seahawk's Front Office isn't bad at drafting now, they are just doing it at a more sustainable level of quality.